This paper examines the structural factors that explain state fragility through a quantitative analysis of 15 conflict-affected countries, with a focus on Sudan.
The statistical model shows that the Human Development Index (HDI) is the most significant and influential factor in explaining variations in fragility levels across countries.
Variables such as internal displacement and violent events did not show statistical significance, suggesting they are more symptoms of fragility rather than root causes.
The study reveals that imbalanced development and lack of distributive justice continue to reinforce Sudan’s fragility, despite the presence of multiple conflicts.
The findings emphasize that investing in human capital and basic services is a more effective entry point for achieving stability.
The paper recommends reorienting public policies toward inclusive development and building institutions capable of restoring trust and the social contract.
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