This research project aims to examine the relationship between gold smuggling and key macroeconomic indicators in Sudan during the period from 2010 to 2023.
An annual database has been prepared, including GDP, government social spending, the Human Development Index (HDI), the parallel exchange rate, and estimated volumes of gold smuggling.
The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology will be used to test both short-term and long-term relationships between these variables.
The results are expected to reveal the indirect effects of gold smuggling on economic performance through channels such as foreign exchange and public resources.
The study relies on the consolidation and statistical processing of data in preparation for estimation, and it is currently in the preliminary estimation phase.
The goal is to provide evidence-based policy recommendations to reduce gold smuggling and enhance economic stability and growth in Sudan.
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