This paper presents a conceptual and practical framework for managing operational risks in organizations operating in wartime environments, with a focus on Sudan after 2023.
It illustrates how conflict leads to disruptions in supply chains, rising costs, and resource volatility — all of which threaten operational continuity.
The paper proposes a dynamic equation that links inputs, resilience, risks, costs, and external returns to measure operational performance.
The model highlights the importance of indirect returns and operational flexibility in improving performance despite elevated risk levels.
Practical examples are provided from the agricultural, industrial, and service sectors, showing how variables can be adjusted to forecast performance.
The paper recommends adopting this model in Sudanese institutions to strengthen proactive planning and resilience in the face of crises.
Full Article Available on Request